In 2020, the world of semiconductors was surging, and the sudden epidemic disrupted the expectations of industrial recovery. The friction between China and the United States’ science and technology involved in political factors became intense. In the turbulent environment, the semiconductor giant opened the curtain of mergers and acquisitions, followed by the rise of the chip architecture ARM, the rise of the third -generation semiconductor material, and the sharp rise in IoT demand … The assembly number of the new pattern is sounding, the global industrial chain Reconstruction, in 2021, the industry will continue to stir.
Under the situation of global disputes, China ’s attention and support for semiconductors and integrated circuits are even higher. Domestic replacement is imperative, but replacement is not a one -time work. We have to face 10 years and 20 years. The marathon of the year, 30 years, or even longer; the other compartment, Europe has also increased investment. Recently, media reports said that 13 EU countries such as Germany, France, and Spain have joined forces to invest in processors and semiconductor technology to catch up Super American and Asia are expected to invest 145 billion euros.
It can be seen that during the game of China and the United States, the European government and enterprises were also quite afraid of the consequences of the duel. They are all changing and reshaping. At such a special crossroads, the demand for semiconductors is still growing, the prosperity is rising, and the competition in the industry is even more fierce. Facing the evolution of the “silicon” world, the giants have launched a new round of card layout. Essence
Capture Roll Industry Chain Reconstruction
Looking back at the heavy acquisition of 2020, ADI announced the acquisition of Maxim (about US $ 21 billion), Nvidia wanted to win ARM (about 40 billion US dollars), AMD would buy Selinz (about 30 billion US dollars), SK Hemiliation intends Intel’s flash memory business (about 9 billion US dollars) is income, Marvell has to acquire Inphi (about 10 billion US dollars), and Global Wile acquisition of Siltronic (approximately $ 4.5 billion), the total transaction has exceeded 100 billion US dollars. Of course, some acquisitions need to face review, but the momentum of mergers and acquisitions will continue. If the acquisition of American companies is successful, then the United States has almost all semiconductor core technology, and the strength of the industrial chain will be further enhanced.
Taking Intel, AMD, and Nvidia as an example, Chen Shaomin, managing director of Beijing Hanergy Investment, talked in a speech that the three showed the top three, all of which had a advanced layout of data centers and edge calculations. Intel has Altera, EASIC, GPUs, AMDs with Cylini and GPU combinations, Nvidia and ARMs formed a new camp. On the one hand, Intel’s status has been challenged; Reduce the threshold of AI chips. In a new round of competitive competition, they are still at the forefront.
A senior analyst at the semiconductor industry told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: “M & A is to pursue growth. At present, global semiconductors are stable industries. Of course, the exception of the Chinese semiconductor industry, the Chinese market is still growing. However, it is expected to be almost three years. In five years, the Chinese semiconductor industry will begin to have a lot of acquisitions. For example Entering the stage of survival of the fittest, it will start from the chip design industry. “
On one side is the integration of the semiconductor industry, and on the other hand, the changes in the industrial chain caused by the Chinese technology industry’s suppression of the Chinese technology industry. Chinese companies led by Huawei are looking for a new supplier chain. European suppliers are also thinking about “de -beautifying “The problem, the domestic apple industry chain is gradually moving abroad, and the butterfly effect caused by the US policy is still continuing.
As an industry with dense capital, intellectual intensive, and high -level industrial chain, the mergers and acquisitions in the semiconductor circle are constantly acquired, and the capital market is active. Now facing new changes. “Semiconductor is a high -tech industry. It has developed from the mechanical manufacturing industry. History is much longer than the Internet industry. At the same time, it is like a traditional industry. Under the framework of the global industry chain, the upstream and downstream are closely linked. In the industry, semiconductors are traditional high -tech companies. Unlike the Internet, there are a lot of open source technology, but there are high barriers. There are many technical blockade. It is difficult for newcomers to challenge the giants. Semiconductor industry people analyzed the 21st Century Business Herald reporter.
Whether it is global or domestic, the giant’s ranking, the reshaping of the supply chain, the competition at the level of computing structure, and the wave of domestic alternatives are continuing. The situation in 2021 will be more challenging and complex.
Domestic replacement accelerate Huawei SMIC variable
Looking at the domestic, on the one hand, domestic semiconductor investment is growing. Some investors have pointed out that the first semiconductor in the first -level market in 2019 is not hot, but in 2020, semiconductor -related investment has risen rapidly. But on the other hand, there are continuous chaos, and some projects are difficult to distinguish, and there are contradictions and contrasts. From the perspective of the background, the situation faced by the domestic semiconductor industry is also more complicated. First of all, the pressure of the industrial chain brought by the United States is the pressure of Huawei and SMIC, which is the uncertainty, and the footsteps of domestic replacement are accelerating.
Recently, Professor Wei Shaojun, a professor at Tsinghua University, said in an interview with the media that the impact of the Chinese chip industry in the current situation is far -reaching, and it will accelerate domestic and European -Japan -Korean components as replacement. At the same time, he mentioned that China’s 28nm chip industry chain is expected to mature within 1-2 years.
In Wei Shaojun’s view, it turned out that the entire Chinese machine company was not too (willing) to use domestic meta -devices, and now a fundamental change has occurred and began to take the initiative to use domestic meta -devices. “From the security of the supply chain, it is going to find a substitute solution. Of course, it is not limited to its own components in China. It also includes components from other countries such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea as a replacement.”
Although domestic replacement is expected, this still requires a long -term systemic cultivation. South Korea’s admission to the National Games has devoted himself to the semiconductor industry to get the current status. At the same time, many experts also mentioned that partners who need to be united to expand the circle of friends.
One of the major catalytic factor for domestic replacement is related controls such as the “entity list” in the United States. After Huawei, SMIC has also been listed in the list recently. In mid -2021, the two giants have also become two core variables. After the general election of the United States, the measures of Chinese technology companies may also change, but no matter what the final orientation is, it needs to be re -discussed to prepare for the buffer time; on the other hand, to establish a production line of de -beautifying and autonomous production lines with partners It is by no means easy.
TrendForce Ji State Consultation pointed out that since September 10, 2020, SMIC may be included in the entity list for the first time, its main American customers Qualcomm and Broadcom have successively planned the transfer form, and even Chinese manufacturers Zhaoyi Innovation has also been. The adjustment will be produced to Huahi Group. After being officially included in the entity list by the US Department of Commerce on December 18, 2020, it is stipulated that American suppliers need to apply for permits to ship them. Among them, the advanced process equipment below 10nm (inclusive) has been fully rejected.
At present, China’s self -produced equipment can only provide the most advanced 90nm production line. The possibility of fully autonomousness to reach the semiconductor production line in the short term is extremely low. SMIC has no products below 10nm to enter mass production. Expanding production will face more obstacles. In addition, the biggest concern at present is equipment consumables and chemical raw materials. Although SMIC is actively introducing China’s self -produced equipment and chemical raw materials, the introduction is still not clear.
Huawei is also continuing to survive and continues to take root in the semiconductor field to solve chip problems. Huawei’s Hubble Technology Investment Co., Ltd. has invested in many industrial chain companies, such as the recently disclosed domestic EDA companies Jiu Tongfang Microelectronics and Ningbo Runhua Quanxin Micro Electronics Co., Ltd., and domestic alternative will be a lasting time. support.
Digitalization promotes silicon demand in 2021. The production capacity is still scarce
At the same time, the problem of insufficient production capacity will continue to affect the semiconductor industry.
On the one hand, digital life brings strong demand and new opportunities to the semiconductor industry. The demand for IoT categories such as data centers, smart cars, wearable devices, and smart homes has greatly improved the demand for various chips and electronic components.
For example, the silicon content in 5G mobile phones will be greatly improved. SUMCO expects that 5G smartphones will be upgraded. The DRAM and Camera silicon content of stand -alone machines will double. NAND silicon content will increase to 8 times; Owen told the 21st World Economic Herald that in the future, electric vehicles may be equipped with $ 1,000 semiconductor products;
On the other hand, in the face of the dramatic demand, global production capacity is short, and domestic production line production capacity is also in short supply, and the degree of shortage. SEMI predicts that in 2021, Foundry will continue to have urgent supply. The wafer foundry market in 2020 will increase by 20%from the previous year. The factory will receive a large number of orders from customers, which will lead to full load. Operation and supply compact. Customers who are sanctioned by the United States should find new foundries, and to some extent, the demand for wafer foundry will increase. At the same time, due to the increase in demand for PMIC, DDI, MCU, and sensors, the supply of 200mm Foundry is particularly urgent.
As a result, there are many factors for production capacity. In addition to insufficient production, there are episodes, the United States suppression, and preparation in advance. At present, the urgency will last until 2021.
Looking forward to 2021, TrendForce Ji State Consultation made three assumptions for the demand side. First of all, the vaccine effect and side effects are still uncertain. There was no transfer; in the end, the global economy was lagging after 2020, and it was expected to recover in 2021. At present, it is estimated that various terminal products include smart phones, servers, laptops, television, cars, etc. will all grow up 2 to 9%in 2021. Except for the needs of components driven by the above -mentioned terminal products, the communication is alternate. The layout of 5G base stations and WIFI 6 will also continue to ferment, driving related parts and components to continue to pull goods. Therefore, it is estimated that the output value of the wafer foundry in 2021 is expected to reach a new high, an annual growth of nearly 6%.
The study of core conspiracy predicts that the tensions brought by insufficient capacity will be transmitted to 2021. “It is said that the capacity of the packaging plant and manufacturing plant has been scheduled to be in mid -2021. From this point of view, production capacity is difficult to alleviate. The production capacity is still very tight, but the second half of the year may be relieved. “
“It is expected that mature craftsmanship and 8 -inch production capacity will still be tight, especially 55nm and 180nm. Except for the 8 -inch production line, all of which are tension, and the mature node of the 12 -inch production line will also be tense. At the same time Once it is updated, once the changes are changed, the trend of the system manufacturing demand side and the supply side of the independent controllable chip will have a great impact. The study of the core plot also pointed out. “The expansion of domestic production is still continuing, and SMIC and Huahong semiconductors are continuing. It is the mainstay, and the two contribute more than 34%and 18%of existing production capacity. Especially Hua Hong semiconductor has added new capacity to contribute 35%of new capacity. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, UMC and Yuexin , China Resources and Xinxin are also strong. “
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