The price of photovoltaic EVA soared by 20%, will the demand for photovoltaic EVA exceed one million tons in 2022?

EVA price increases by 20%

The price of various links of the photovoltaic industry chain has risen across the board. The prices of photovoltaic auxiliary battery encapsulant film, polysilicon and silicon wafers are high. Recently, the price of EVA photovoltaic materials has risen sharply, and the market quotation is 22,500-22,800 yuan / ton, which has risen by nearly 20% from the beginning of January.

EVA imports declined

From January to February 2022, China’s EVA imports showed a decline. According to customs statistics, China’s EVA imports from January to February 2022 were 158,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%; The main import areas are South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand. From January to February 2022, China’s EVA export volume was 19,100 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons compared with January to February 2021, a year-on-year increase of 154.67%.

Guotai Junan believes that due to the complex production process of EVA photovoltaic materials, the release of new capacity expansion is slow, and the price may continue to rise due to the high growth of downstream demand. Looking forward to the future, the release cycle of new capacity on the supply side is long, the proportion of high-end photovoltaic materials is relatively low, and the dependence on imports is still high; The demand side is driven by many factors such as the increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic terminals, the expansion of industrial chain production capacity, and the increase in the grammage of adhesive film. High-quality EVA photovoltaic materials continue to be scarce, the tight balance between supply and demand remains unchanged, and the industry’s high prosperity is expected to continue.

PV EVA production capacity increased

In 2022, the production capacity of domestic EVA particles will grow rapidly, and there are currently nine photovoltaic EVA particle manufacturers in China, and the production capacity is expected to reach 511,000 tons by the end of the year.

First of all, the main factors for this strong rally:

1. The key to the rise in the market is still the largest downstream photovoltaic demand support of EVA, and the export orders of module factories in the main links of the photovoltaic industry chain in January and February are gratifying, and the demand transmitted to photovoltaic-grade EVA is significantly stronger than the traditional off-season demand in January and February in previous years.

2. On the supply side, due to the strong demand for photovoltaic materials, the EVA photovoltaic production schedule of various petrochemical manufacturers accounts for a relatively large proportion, and the supply of other types of output is limited. In particular, the supply of soft materials is mostly inclined to the direction of photovoltaic plants, and the market circulation spot is extremely limited.

3. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the inventory of petrochemical manufacturers is not pressurized, and the middlemen and downstream factories are mostly unclear about the future market, and under the worried mentality, most of the pre-sale short warehouses are mainly for the New Year, and they have entered the market to purchase spot goods after the year, and the tight situation of spot resources was difficult to alleviate for a time.

4. Lianhong Xinke EVA plant entered a one-month capacity expansion and overhaul period on February 28, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s 300,000 tons/year EVA plant was planned to be overhauled for 5-7 days in March, and Yangzi Petrochemical planned to overhaul for nearly two months from March 18 to May 13. The loss of soft material supply from Lianhong Xinco alone is expected to reach 11,000 tons.

Driven by the above favorable factors, the EVA market rebounded sharply this week, and there is no trend of rising and stopping to stabilize for the time being.

The following factors need to be paid attention to regarding the aftermarket:

1. The surge in crude oil drives the commodity market atmosphere, the mentality of the upstream and downstream operators of radiation EVA is slightly boosted, the downstream photovoltaic demand will expand the overall capacity in 2022, the installed capacity of modules will also be higher than last year, the demand for soft materials is in a better situation, and the price is currently tense, the price still has room to rise. In March, foamed shoe materials, especially slippers, are in the peak procurement season, and the price space is still relatively flexible.

2. After the holiday, some low-cost imported materials arrived at the port, but there are still a certain number of shipping schedule delays, due to the large profit space of the batch of materials, the profit inventory is safer, the shipment pressure is not large, and the mentality is stable and supported. The new US dollar offers continued to rise, and the internal and external forces drove the domestic spot higher3) The overhaul of the domestic EVA device in the later stage made the supply tight, and the short-term support for the market to run a strong channel.

The demand for photovoltaic EVA resin is expected to exceed 1 million tons in 2023! In the first half of 2021, the average shipment weight of adhesive film of mainstream enterprises has reached 500g/㎡.

Source | Public, public news

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